10 to the 23 AI logo

Domain Atlas

Security operations & fraud detection

Machine-learning fraud, anti-money-laundering, and financial-crime detection — the domain governed by extreme base rates, where the arithmetic itself sets the limits. When the thing being detected is rare, detection precision is dominated by the false-alarm rate rather than by accuracy, so a threshold change moves the burden of alerts rather than the truth of them; and because only a few flagged cases are ever verified, models retrain on the investigators' own dispositions, so a rise in 'confirmed' activity can be partly a measure of what the system taught its reviewers to confirm. Two harms sit on opposite sides of the same score: the false-positive tail lands on real people — frozen accounts, weeks without funds — while the missed cases are the fraud the system exists to catch, and detection quality and the justice of the disposition are different levers held by different actors. Almost every deployment-scale benefit number in this domain is a vendor self-report with no independent audit; the model enters them as claimed magnitudes and says so. The Lab networks model only the deploying organization — its models, investigators, and case stores; the account holders and flagged parties sit outside the dynamics, and no customer outcome is computed on any diagram.

Use cases

What AI is doing here

ML transaction monitoring & AML

Predictive

Machine-learning transaction-monitoring and anti-money-laundering systems replacing rules-based monitoring — where extreme base rates mean the false-alarm rate sets the precision floor and threshold changes move the burden of alerts more than the truth of them.

Fraud scoring & account action

Predictive

Fraud-risk scores that trigger account freezes, closures, or holds — where the false-positive tail lands on real customers as immediate hardship, and the operations backlog to unfreeze and refund can turn a wrong flag into weeks without funds.

Alert triage & investigator disposition

Predictive

Investigator triage of fraud and financial-crime alerts, where only a small set of flagged cases is ever verified and the analysts' dispositions become the labels the model retrains on — a feedback loop in which 'confirmed' activity partly measures what the system taught its reviewers to confirm.

Case files

What has gone wrong and right

Documented deployments, presented as model organizations calibrated to the evidence, with full citations.

System map

Who is in the system and what pushes on it

Who is in the system

  • Frontline workers. Caseworkers, screeners, eligibility staff — the operator network whose judgment the system augments or erodes.
  • Supervisors & QA. The institutional correction layer: overrides, second reads, quality review.
  • Agency leadership. Owns procurement, policy, and the authority map; answers for the system publicly.
  • Served people & families. Those the decisions land on. Deliberately outside the PAN dynamics — their outcomes are measured, never simulated.
  • Vendors. Build and update the systems; hold the information asymmetry procurement must govern.
  • Regulators & oversight bodies. Boards, auditors, data-protection officers, inspectorates — external correction capacity.

Dominant pressures

  • Caseload surge. Demand outruns staffing; per-case attention shrinks and review becomes triage.
  • Reviewer bottleneck. One fixed-capacity checking stage sits between AI output and consequence; everything queues behind it.
  • Vendor opacity. The deploying institution cannot inspect the model, data, or update pipeline it is accountable for.
  • Data & policy drift. The world, the intake process, and the rules change under a system trained on how things used to be — two mechanisms with different remedies: the statistical properties of what the system processes move (concept drift), or the mixture of inputs arriving in deployment differs from the mixture it was trained on (covariate shift).
  • Compliance over substance. Paper controls (sign-offs, checklists) satisfy audits while the behavior they describe erodes.

Governance

Questions leaders should be asking

  1. 1. The thing being detected is rare, so the false-alarm rate — not accuracy — sets the precision floor; does a threshold change actually catch more fraud, or does it just move the burden of alerts while a headline 'more confirmed activity' number stands in for truth?
  2. 2. The model retrains on the investigators' own dispositions, and only a few flagged cases are ever verified; so is a rise in 'confirmed' activity independent ground truth, or partly a measure of what the system taught its reviewers to confirm?
  3. 3. The false-positive tail lands on real people — a frozen account is immediate hardship for a benefit recipient or a low-balance household; so who counts that harm, and is there a resourced path to unfreeze and refund quickly, or does the operations backlog turn a wrong flag into weeks without funds?
  4. 4. Detection quality and the justice of the disposition are different levers held by different actors — a bank can score fraud well and still reimburse victims badly; so is anyone measuring the victim outcome, and does it take a rule change rather than a better model to move it?

For the actions behind these questions, see the Practice Library.

Seeing your organization in this domain? Mapping its actual pathways, pressures, and correction capacity is engagement work.

Work With 1023AI

Sources & Evidence

Claims made on this page and what supports them. The full registry lives in Evidence.

ConceptualThe volume's criminal-justice chapter separates three routes by which a risk instrument inherits disparity. Th…

The volume's criminal-justice chapter separates three routes by which a risk instrument inherits disparity. The training target is usually arrest, charge or conviction rather than offending itself, which is largely unobserved. The strongest inputs are typically prior system contacts, which carry the disparity of the enforcement that produced them. And the sample is drawn from the population the system already touched. The chapter treats these as distinct routes, so a remedy aimed at one does not address the others.

ahn2026AcademicSave

Ahn, E., & Angell, B. (2026). AI in Criminal Justice and Rehabilitation. In R. An & M. A. Lindsey (Eds.), Artificial Intelligence in Social Work: Bridging Technology and Humanity. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-18443-6_14

doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-18443-6_14

Appears in: AI in Social Work (Springer, 2026)

Topics: algorithmic-fairness, criminal-justice, social-work

EmpiricalWhere base rates differ between groups, a risk instrument cannot be both well calibrated across those groups a…

Where base rates differ between groups, a risk instrument cannot be both well calibrated across those groups and equal in its error rates across them. The volume's criminal-justice chapter restates this result, which the site already carries in its primary form from Chouldechova's 2017 analysis of recidivism instruments. It is a property of the scoring instrument and the population it is applied to, not a defect that a better model removes.

ahn2026AcademicSave

Ahn, E., & Angell, B. (2026). AI in Criminal Justice and Rehabilitation. In R. An & M. A. Lindsey (Eds.), Artificial Intelligence in Social Work: Bridging Technology and Humanity. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-18443-6_14

doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-18443-6_14

Appears in: AI in Social Work (Springer, 2026)

Topics: algorithmic-fairness, criminal-justice, social-work

chouldechova2017AcademicSave

Chouldechova, A. (2017). Fair prediction with disparate impact: A study of bias in recidivism prediction instruments. Big Data, 5(2), 153–163. https://doi.org/10.1089/big.2016.0047

doi.org/10.1089/big.2016.0047

Appears in: PAN framework development

Topics: algorithmic-fairness, child-welfare

EmpiricalThe volume's criminal-justice chapter reports a statewide pretrial reform, evaluated by Anderson and colleague…

The volume's criminal-justice chapter reports a statewide pretrial reform, evaluated by Anderson and colleagues in 2019, in which the pretrial jail population fell without a rise in crime or in failure to appear. Over the same period the racial composition of those still detained did not materially change. Both halves are the finding: the level moved and the composition did not.

ahn2026AcademicSave

Ahn, E., & Angell, B. (2026). AI in Criminal Justice and Rehabilitation. In R. An & M. A. Lindsey (Eds.), Artificial Intelligence in Social Work: Bridging Technology and Humanity. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-18443-6_14

doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-18443-6_14

Appears in: AI in Social Work (Springer, 2026)

Topics: algorithmic-fairness, criminal-justice, social-work