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Evidence · The claim ledger

Antifragility & benefit-dose (PAN framing)3

Every ledgered claim this site makes in this evidence area, with the sources that ground it — or, for a PAN-simulation-derived claim, the run it comes from. Source keys link back to the full reference lists on the Evidence Registry.

ConceptualSafety-only alignment establishes a behavioral floor without a ceiling: systems can be 'not-unsafe' yet directionless — …

Safety-only alignment establishes a behavioral floor without a ceiling: systems can be 'not-unsafe' yet directionless — compliant without being constructive — and benefit must be assessed as scaffold versus crutch.

Sources: laukkonen2026

Appears on: /pan-lab, /what-ai-can-do

ConceptualFormally, a system benefits from volatility when its response to a stressor is convex (Jensen's inequality: the expected…

Formally, a system benefits from volatility when its response to a stressor is convex (Jensen's inequality: the expected outcome under variability exceeds the outcome at the average), and is harmed when the response is concave — so whether a shock strengthens or weakens an organization depends on the curvature of its response, a bounded local property that fails beyond a defined stress range.

Sources: axenie2024, taleb2013

Appears on: /pan-lab, /what-ai-can-do

ConceptualRepeatable behaviors follow a dose-response curve — beneficial at low frequency or count and harmful past a hormetic lim…

Repeatable behaviors follow a dose-response curve — beneficial at low frequency or count and harmful past a hormetic limit (the dose beyond which net utility turns negative) — because a fast benefit process is followed by a slower accumulating opposing process, giving AI assistance an optimal bounded dose rather than a monotonic benefit.

Sources: henry2025, calabrese2002

Appears on: /pan-lab, /what-ai-can-do